Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:05:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F5 0xf529…755f sports 473 markets active 12h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$522 (+1%) realized +$492 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%185W / 286L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$777est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$983
7 days+$1,685
14 days−$407
30 days−$1,809
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$93
other 1% −$185
crypto 0% −$17
culture 0% −$53
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -31.4% -37.9% 38% 36% +8.3%
≤30d 257 -22.6% -30.0% 36% 35% -13.1%
≤90d 455 -2.5% -11.8% 38% 36% -10.7%
all 471 -1.2% -10.6% 39% 37% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 37% -10.7%
10% -19.1% 33% -19.3%
15% -27.0% 27% -27.1%
20% -34.1% 22% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$66 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$492
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses185 / 286
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$777
Open positions2
Markets (closed)471 / 473
History coverage159d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 471 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $17 $48 +$31 (+183%)
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $374 +$625 +167%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $407 +$592 +145%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $66 +$33 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $28 +$45 +158%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Gr Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Team Heretics win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $231 −$231 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $478 −$478 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $411 +$887 +216%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $72 +$33 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $6 +$9 +139%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $48 +$12 +24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $669 +$343 +51%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO1) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$11 +198%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 13 $95 −$95 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 13 $367 −$367 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $74 −$40 -54%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $83 −$83 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $697 +$309 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $350 +$43 +12%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,070 +$15 +1%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $163 +$74 +46%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $567 +$441 +78%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $491 +$89 +18%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$13 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Heretics 1¢ $2 11h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Heretics 1¢ $1 11h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Heretics 1¢ $1 11h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Heretics 1¢ $1 11h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Shifters 1¢ $1 12h
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Team Secret 1¢ $2 15h
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 9¢ $53 32h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $589 32h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $410 32h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $999 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $78 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 29¢ $296 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $73 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $28 39h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 24¢ $47 39h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 16¢ $1 39h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Under 40¢ $407 39h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 5¢ $18 39h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 1¢ $1 40h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $100 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 1¢ $1 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 55¢ $56 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 14¢ $10 2d
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $110 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 38¢ $3 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Gr BUY LOUD 5¢ $7 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Gr BUY LOUD 5¢ $31 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 35¢ $42 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.55 · official $50.55 (match) · 1528 history records