Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:14:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F5 0xf527…f1e3 world 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% $0
world 25% $0
politics 17% +$3
finance 17% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +3.3% -6.5% 43% 14% -9.3%
≤90d 7 +3.3% -6.5% 43% 14% -9.3%
all 7 +3.3% -6.5% 43% 14% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 14% -9.3%
10% -15.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -23.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -31.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.4 per $1 lost it wins $9.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage27d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 22 $98 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $184 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 11 $187 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $189 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 4, 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $256 $0 -0%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $191 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records