Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf51f…19ca crypto 173 markets active 6d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (215 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$196 (-7%) realized −$196 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%66W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day215.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$241
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (215 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -0.7% -10.1% 38% 38% -15.3%
≤30d 173 -1.6% -10.9% 38% 38% -18.0%
≤90d 173 -1.6% -10.9% 38% 38% -18.0%
all 173 -1.6% -10.9% 38% 38% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover215.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 38% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 37% -25.8%
15% -27.2% 37% -33.0%
20% -34.4% 37% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses66 / 107
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 173
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day215.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions (88 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$31 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $65 +$10 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $122 −$115 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $48 +$89 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $22 +$39 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $32 +$37 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $22 +$35 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $17 +$35 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$55 +348%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$37 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $63 +$171 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 485 history records