Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf51f…6b41 crypto 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$57 (-2%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate53%72W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$58
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$23
other 13% −$123
sports 8% +$84
weather 1% −$9
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -15.3% -23.4% 37% 28% -16.7%
≤30d 46 -15.3% -23.4% 37% 28% -16.7%
≤90d 46 -15.3% -23.4% 37% 28% -16.7%
all 136 -11.0% -19.5% 53% 32% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 32% -11.5%
10% -27.2% 21% -19.9%
15% -34.2% 15% -27.7%
20% -40.7% 9% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses72 / 64
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 139
History coverage133d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $20 −$8 -41%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $24 −$23 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +46%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $30 +$4 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $34 +$40 +119%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$25 +278%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $91 −$80 -88%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $105 −$31 -30%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $39 −$1 -3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$18 -93%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $39 +$12 +31%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $30 +$11 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 15? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +53%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 +$41 +114%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $25 +$8 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W Jun 12 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -83%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $30 −$5 -18%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 19 $9 −$6 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 19 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 19 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 19 $6 −$1 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 63¢ $24 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $44 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 11h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $13 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $20 20h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 20h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 20h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $29 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 24h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 70¢ $9 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $11 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 95¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 78¢ $1 2d
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 75¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? SELL No 50¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.15 · official $10.15 (match) · 610 history records