Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

F5 0xf51f…0fd5 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$59 (+9%) realized +$33 · open +$26

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate69%9W / 4L

Drawdown60%max

Avg bet$44per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit13%portable

Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$32

7 days+$21

14 days+$21

30 days+$62

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)-1.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+1.3%	-8.4%	73%	55%	-5.9%
≤30d	12	+18.4%	+7.1%	75%	58%	+1.0%
≤90d	12	+18.4%	+7.1%	75%	58%	+1.0%
all	13	+9.3%	-1.2%	69%	54%	-1.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.2%	54%	-1.0%
10%	-10.6%	38%	-10.5%
15%	-19.2%	31%	-19.1%
20%	-27.2%	23%	-27.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 54% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

22% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +19% → late +1% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$31 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.41 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage

Net worth$138

Realized+$33

Unrealized+$26

Win rate (resolved)69%

Wins / losses9 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)13 / 15

History coverage188d

Avg bet$44

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown60%

Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	74¢	98¢	$79	$104	+$25 (+32%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	51¢	52¢	$33	$34	+$1 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$34	−$34	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$70	+$11	+15%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$40	+$3	+8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$42	+$53	+128%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$75	+$7	+9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 22	$51	+$24	+47%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 22	$29	−$29	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$30	+$21	+69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$52	+$7	+13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$42	+$11	+25%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$51	−$51	-100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 31	$20	+$42	+206%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	Dec 22	$11	−$11	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	74¢	$80	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$34	34h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$34	34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$70	34h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$40	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$42	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$75	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$51	4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	21¢	$29	4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$30	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	88¢	$52	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	79¢	$42	5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	17¢	$51	5d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	32¢	$20	56d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	BUY Yes	11¢	$11	188d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.43 · official $138.43 (match) · 28 history records