Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F5 0xf51e…e386 sports 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,827 (-4%) realized −$1,819 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%118W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$565est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$203
7 days+$120
14 days+$120
30 days−$616
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$2,135
other 9% +$11
world 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -11.4% -19.8% 53% 53% -1.5%
≤30d 26 -14.4% -22.6% 50% 50% -25.7%
≤90d 248 -2.8% -12.0% 48% 48% -14.1%
all 248 -2.8% -12.0% 48% 48% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 48% -14.1%
10% -20.5% 47% -22.3%
15% -28.1% 45% -29.8%
20% -35.2% 42% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$154 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized−$1,819
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses118 / 130
Est. fees paid−$565
Open positions7
Markets (closed)248 / 255
History coverage78d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score No 62¢ 62¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 56¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$71 +70%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $66 +$36 +55%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? Jun 27 $20 −$16 -82%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$68 +67%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$68 +67%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$74 +73%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $122 +$97 +79%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $202 +$137 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $203 −$199 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $397 −$390 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $199 +$199 +100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $473 −$465 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $280 +$194 +69%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $199 +$80 +40%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $51 +$32 +64%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $51 +$63 +122%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Bo May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 23 $64 −$63 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $51 +$80 +157%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Mia May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $51 +$53 +104%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Los Ang May 22 $31 +$29 +96%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 21 $102 +$90 +89%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 21 $35 +$28 +82%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 21 $51 +$53 +104%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 21 $51 +$53 +104%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 16 $300 −$295 -98%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $203 +$96 +47%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. May 13 $97 −$95 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 May 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 13 $207 −$5 -3%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $204 −$200 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 May 13 $101 +$91 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $81 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $41 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $76 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? SELL Yes $4 6h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $66 6h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? BUY Yes $20 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 18¢ $51 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 76¢ $101 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 10h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $41 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $152 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $71 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $51 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $202 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $56 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $5 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $10 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $10 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $20 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $51 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.40 · official $392.43 (match) · 445 history records