Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf51b…ca1b
weather · 591 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$526 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$715 · open −$183
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$194
Realized+$715
Unrealized−$183
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses188 / 335
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions82
Markets (closed)523 / 591
History coverage9d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day338.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 82 History 523 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$219
7 days+$403
14 days+$715
30 days+$715
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? No 82¢ 68¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 31¢ 28¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? No 31¢ 39¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Yes 37¢ 68¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+82%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? No 83¢ 95¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? No 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Yes 48¢ 65¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? No 32¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+216%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Yes 63¢ 72¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 62¢ 65¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 15¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-41%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? No 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$41 +153%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +84%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$26 +283%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$12 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $8 −$3 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$6 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $13 +$3 +23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $11 +$13 +113%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $16 −$8 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $14 −$11 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$215 +1859%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$4 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$14 +223%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$9 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 11 $11 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$13 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 91% +$525
crypto 5% +$13
other 1% −$6
finance 1% −$2
world 1% +$4
sports 0% +$1
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 0m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 4m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 31¢ $3 6m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 31¢ $3 6m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 31¢ $0 6m
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9m
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 15m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 31¢ $9 21m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 33m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 33m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 79¢ $2 36m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY No 84¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 54¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 80¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 69¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 97¢ $23 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 85¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $4 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 93¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 457 -1.1% -10.5% 36% 32% +0.9%
≤30d 523 +3.2% -6.7% 36% 33% +2.3%
≤90d 523 +3.2% -6.7% 36% 33% +2.3%
all 523 +3.2% -6.7% 36% 33% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover338.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 33% +2.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 28% -7.5%
15% -23.7% 25% -16.4%
20% -31.2% 22% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.88 · official $193.89 (match) · 3500 history records