Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf51a…9f88 politics 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,607 (-1%) realized −$1,608 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate23%26W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,065per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,712now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$18
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$64
other 37% −$82
sports 8% −$1,441
culture 4% −$6
world 2% −$2
crypto 1% −$31
tech 1% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 48 -2.2% -11.5% 10% 0% -12.3%
all 112 +1.2% -8.4% 23% 12% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 12% -10.8%
10% -17.2% 12% -19.3%
15% -25.2% 11% -27.1%
20% -32.5% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,608) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$29 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$1,712
Realized−$1,608
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses26 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 114
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,065
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $859 $861 +$1 (+0%)
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $852 $851 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $848 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,919 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,842 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2,958 −$5 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,666 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,649 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,615 −$3 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,341 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,960 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,400 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,522 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,639 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 03 $340 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $716 +$2 +0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $555 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $471 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $927 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,016 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $3,331 −$4 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,349 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $3,813 −$4 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,529 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $1,555 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 04 $1,655 −$2 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con May 01 $219 +$1 +0%
Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con May 01 $410 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $474 +$2 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $324 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $5,036 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,301 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $1,308 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $1,427 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,599 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,691 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $118 $0 -0%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $1,911 −$1,911 -100%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $113 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $94 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $119 $0 -0%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Celtics vs. Rockets Mar 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $852 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $847 3h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $848 5h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $753 5d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $754 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $855 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $856 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $551 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $552 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $856 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $857 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $860 10d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,409 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,411 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,613 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,616 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,664 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,666 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,647 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,649 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,612 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,615 14d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,339 19d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,341 20d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,317 22d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,319 23d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,398 23d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,400 23d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,409 23d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,411 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,711.99 · official $1,711.99 (match) · 340 history records