Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F5 0xf51a…7e42 other 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$356 (-27%) realized −$350 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip

Net edge-60%after slip

Net WR11%break-even

Win rate16%3W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$61per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +11%

net ROI/market (all)-56.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-51.8%	-56.4%	16%	11%	-65.1%
≤30d	19	-51.8%	-56.4%	16%	11%	-65.1%
≤90d	19	-51.8%	-56.4%	16%	11%	-65.1%
all	19	-51.8%	-56.4%	16%	11%	-65.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-56.4%	11%	-65.1%
10%	-60.6%	11%	-68.5%
15%	-64.4%	11%	-71.5%
20%	-67.9%	5%	-74.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -52% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -36% → late -66% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$77 vs −$53 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.27 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$191

Realized−$350

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)16%

Wins / losses3 / 16

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 22

History coverage4d

Avg bet$61

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	11¢	12¢	$97	$102	+$4 (+5%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt?	Yes	14¢	12¢	$100	$89	−$11 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$48	−$46	-97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$102	−$100	-98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Jun 15	$14	−$14	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 15	$47	−$20	-43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Jun 15	$5	$0	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 15	$21	−$18	-86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Jun 15	$63	−$13	-21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 15	$26	+$11	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Jun 15	$78	−$51	-65%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$48	−$47	-97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan?	Jun 14	$49	−$48	-98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?	Jun 14	$100	−$98	-98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$50	+$219	+442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$50	−$48	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$130	−$127	-98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$21	−$20	-97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$154	−$150	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt?	BUY Yes	11¢	$100	3m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	6m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	8¢	$48	1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	20¢	$102	1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$14	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$21	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	SELL Down	57¢	$35	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$25	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	SELL Down	51¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	SELL Down	8¢	$3	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Down	13¢	$21	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	SELL Up	5¢	$31	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$21	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$21	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$19	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$20	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	SELL Up	37¢	$37	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$26	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$26	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$27	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	SELL Up	66¢	$27	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$26	4h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	8¢	$48	8h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	13¢	$49	28h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?	BUY Yes	16¢	$100	28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14	BUY	11¢	$71	34h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$269	36h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.05 · official $191.05 (match) · 38 history records