Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:56:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf519…87e3 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$182 (-4%) realized −$181 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%33W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$3
sports 22% −$194
crypto 14% +$14
economics 9% −$1
politics 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 4 +3.8% -6.1% 100% 0% -5.7%
≤90d 10 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -6.6%
all 44 -0.5% -10.0% 75% 0% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -13.5%
10% -18.6% 0% -21.8%
15% -26.5% 0% -29.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$20 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$181
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses33 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage548d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? No 97¢ 95¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $36 +$3 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 16 $17 $0 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 16 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Apr 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 25 $18 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? Mar 27 $17 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 27 $17 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 26 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 26 $17 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $17 $0 +1%
Rangers vs. Blue Jackets Nov 15 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 15 $14 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? Oct 26 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? Oct 26 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 27 $15 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $250 in August? Sep 27 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? Aug 28 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 28 $24 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jul 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 28 $16 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? Jun 28 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $13 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $19 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Mar 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Mar 19 $373 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024? Jan 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the Eastern Conference? Dec 18 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 18 $362 −$1 -0%
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 18 $364 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 18 $380 −$1 -0%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Dec 18 $379 −$1 -0%
Will the 49ers win the NFC Championship? Dec 18 $380 −$1 -0%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 18 $368 $0 -0%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 18 $382 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $40 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 91¢ $36 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 98¢ $18 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $18 23d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 97¢ $18 55d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $17 55d
Will Solana reach $110 in March? BUY No 99¢ $16 84d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $18 84d
Will Solana dip to $60 in February? BUY No 99¢ $17 113d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 98¢ $17 113d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? BUY No 98¢ $16 144d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 98¢ $17 144d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $17 173d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $16 173d
Rangers vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 49¢ $193 216d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 97¢ $14 235d
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? BUY No 97¢ $25 235d
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? BUY No 97¢ $25 264d
Will Solana dip to $175 in September? BUY No 96¢ $12 264d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 98¢ $15 295d
Will Solana reach $250 in August? BUY No 97¢ $21 295d
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? BUY No 92¢ $11 329d
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? BUY No 98¢ $24 329d
Will Solana reach $180 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 355d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 99¢ $16 388d
Will Solana reach $210 in May? BUY No 94¢ $17 388d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 99¢ $13 421d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 97¢ $20 421d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $19 457d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.24 · official $29.26 (match) · 93 history records