Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf519…906b
other · 35 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$38,619 +25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$80,853 · open −$30,007
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$158,355
Realized−$80,853
Unrealized−$30,007
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$570
Open positions68
Markets (closed)30 / 35
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4,424
Trades / day1019.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%
Chart Positions 68 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83,055
7 days−$80,853
14 days−$80,853
30 days−$80,853
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $32,181 $32,908 +$727 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $24,142 $24,075 −$67 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12,482 $12,213 −$268 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11,279 $11,086 −$194 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10,800 $10,850 +$50 (+0%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $10,632 $9,760 −$873 (-8%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 85¢ 84¢ $8,335 $8,285 −$49 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $5,731 $5,594 −$137 (-2%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $4,155 $4,850 +$696 (+17%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? No 89¢ 92¢ $4,667 $4,798 +$131 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 92¢ 94¢ $4,600 $4,725 +$125 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $3,903 $3,881 −$21 (-1%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 29¢ 38¢ $2,095 $2,781 +$686 (+33%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 65¢ 19¢ $6,470 $1,895 −$4,575 (-71%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11,544 $1,732 −$9,813 (-85%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 49¢ 48¢ $1,688 $1,671 −$17 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 73¢ 74¢ $1,475 $1,485 +$10 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 61¢ 66¢ $1,342 $1,441 +$99 (+7%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6,628 $1,392 −$5,236 (-79%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 84¢ $1,231 $1,239 +$7 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,230 $1,237 +$6 (+1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 83¢ 84¢ $1,172 $1,179 +$7 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? No 77¢ 79¢ $1,078 $1,106 +$28 (+3%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 73¢ 72¢ $861 $855 −$6 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 50¢ 50¢ $612 $618 +$6 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $448 −$13,510 -3016%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 12 $9,540 −$9,540 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $192 −$192 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,347 −$1,346 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Jun 12 $14,118 −$14,118 -100%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 12 $5,680 −$5,680 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 12 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $148 −$148 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 12 $4,248 −$4,248 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio Jun 12 $3,077 −$3,077 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $448 −$12,750 -2846%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 12 $22,250 −$22,250 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 12 $7,508 −$7,508 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 12 $3,809 −$3,809 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $0 +$100 +67360%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $6,638 +$3,362 +51%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $591 +$4,023 +681%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5,610 +$330 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $13,800 +$7,321 +53%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $13,350 +$1,835 +14%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $3,458 −$3,407 -98%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $7,414 +$2,586 +35%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 10 $2 +$1,318 +67500%
Libema Open: Tamara Korpatsch vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 09 $2,308 +$726 +32%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $4,333 +$3,304 +76%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $6,603 +$3,397 +51%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $2,334 +$2,040 +87%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 09 $1,276 −$1,264 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 73% −$19,866
sports 19% +$9,019
tech 6% +$400
crypto 2% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $95 0m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $96 1m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $55 2m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 84¢ $99 3m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 5m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 8m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $33 10m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $44 11m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $59 12m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 13m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 13m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $29 14m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 16m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 17m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 18m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 19m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 19m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 19m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 20m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 20m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $87 21m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 21m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $56 21m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 22m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $22 23m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 84¢ $2 24m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $29 24m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 24m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+89.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +109.5% +89.6% 40% 37% -44.1%
≤30d 30 +109.5% +89.6% 40% 37% -44.1%
≤90d 30 +109.5% +89.6% 40% 37% -44.1%
all 30 +109.5% +89.6% 40% 37% -44.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1019.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +89.6% 37% -44.1%
10% +71.4% 33% -49.4%
15% ← realistic here +54.9% 27% -54.3%
20% +39.7% 27% -58.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158,355.04 · official $158,354.09 (match) · 3500 history records