Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf515…0805 other 503 markets active 2h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21,294 (-4%) realized −$21,291 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%255W / 247L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,159per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$970now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$781
14 days+$198
30 days+$1,468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$5,387
other 30% +$1,444
sports 23% −$16,891
economics 3% −$123
world 1% −$728
crypto 1% +$224
tech 0% −$45
culture 0% −$10
finance 0% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -21.5% -29.0% 20% 20% -34.9%
≤30d 14 +5.4% -4.7% 57% 57% +3.2%
≤90d 34 -23.9% -31.2% 44% 41% -39.0%
all 502 -4.2% -13.3% 51% 45% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 45% -12.9%
10% -21.6% 34% -21.3%
15% -29.2% 26% -28.9%
20% -36.1% 18% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,000) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$267 vs −$369 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$970
Realized−$21,291
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses255 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions1
Markets (closed)502 / 503
History coverage343d
Avg bet$1,159
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 502 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $972 $970 −$3 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $756 −$752 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $534 +$222 +42%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $515 −$144 -28%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $515 −$81 -16%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $467 −$27 -6%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $405 +$242 +60%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $774 +$173 +22%
Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $169 −$166 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $1,080 −$305 -28%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1,287 +$286 +22%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $904 +$383 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1,209 +$366 +30%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $858 +$410 +48%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $999 +$860 +86%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $543 −$534 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $810 −$801 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $134 −$131 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $538 +$303 +56%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 17 $672 −$672 -100%
Blackburn Rovers FC vs. Coventry City FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 17 $726 −$22 -3%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $1,200 +$636 +53%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $540 −$535 -99%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $316 −$276 -87%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 07 $396 −$387 -98%
England vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Mar 31 $1,138 −$1,138 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $967 +$171 +18%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $572 +$396 +69%
FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $2,998 −$2,998 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Mar 21 $1,999 −$1,999 -100%
RB Leipzig vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score Mar 20 $3,498 −$3,498 -100%
FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $3,548 −$3,548 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1,461 +$588 +40%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $907 +$554 +61%
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $4,138 +$196 +5%
Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 2.5 Mar 17 $2,499 +$1,022 +41%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 16 $1,999 +$484 +24%
Liverpool FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $2,017 −$2,017 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $1,999 −$1,999 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 11 $3,070 +$2,077 +68%
Atalanta BC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Mar 11 $1,769 +$832 +47%
Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 10 $2,199 −$2,199 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 07 $3,007 +$2,211 +74%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 05 $1,079 +$748 +69%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $1,041 −$1,041 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? Mar 04 $719 +$323 +45%
Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 01 $1,692 +$1,407 +83%
Fulham FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 01 $999 +$693 +69%
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $650 −$650 -100%
Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 23 $1,199 −$1,199 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 22 $999 +$958 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $997 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $756 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $534 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $481 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $371 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $434 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $440 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $467 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $515 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $513 8d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3.5 100¢ $647 8d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? SELL Yes 100¢ $778 8d
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 62¢ $405 8d
Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 35¢ $169 9d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? SELL Yes 78¢ $169 9d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 77¢ $774 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Flavio Cobolli 50¢ $775 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 68¢ $1,080 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 97¢ $1,573 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 79¢ $1,287 12d
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3.5 100¢ $1,287 12d
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 70¢ $904 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 97¢ $1,575 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 74¢ $1,209 14d
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 67¢ $858 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $999 16d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 48¢ $543 37d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $810 40d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $134 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $969.54 · official $969.54 (match) · 2255 history records