Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
F5 0xf511…bfe4 sports 479 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,858 (+10%) realized +$2,838 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate84%401W / 74L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,129
7 days+$2,013
14 days+$2,500
30 days+$2,793
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$2,179
sports 30% +$539
politics 13% +$34
crypto 1% +$6
world 1% +$53
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 +34.4% +21.6% 84% 62% +2.5%
≤30d 475 +23.7% +11.9% 84% 45% -0.5%
≤90d 475 +23.7% +11.9% 84% 45% -0.5%
all 475 +23.7% +11.9% 84% 45% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.9% 45% -0.5%
10% ← realistic here +1.2% 28% -10.0%
15% -8.6% 18% -18.7%
20% -17.5% 15% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$496
Realized+$2,838
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses401 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions4
Markets (closed)475 / 479
History coverage28d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals No 77¢ 84¢ $385 $422 +$38 (+10%)
Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals No 89¢ 80¢ $44 $40 −$5 (-11%)
Gustaf Nilsson: 1+ goals No 80¢ 50¢ $40 $25 −$15 (-38%)
Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals No 67¢ 92¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $7 +$1 +15%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $377 +$23 +6%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals Jun 20 $149 +$40 +27%
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals Jun 20 $288 +$55 +19%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 20 $651 +$334 +51%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $520 +$240 +46%
Danilo Santos: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 +$3 +25%
Rayan: 1+ goals Jun 20 $3 +$1 +33%
Éderson: 1+ goals Jun 20 $2 $0 +25%
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals Jun 20 $14 +$6 +44%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 $0 -3%
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shots Jun 19 $12 +$50 +400%
Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals Jun 19 $15 +$5 +32%
Gio Reyna: 1+ goals Jun 19 $425 +$114 +27%
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals Jun 19 $117 +$24 +20%
Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals Jun 19 $95 −$16 -17%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists Jun 19 $78 +$23 +30%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots Jun 19 $160 +$29 +18%
Weston McKennie: 1+ goals Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 19 $355 −$3 -1%
Alexis Vega: 1+ shots Jun 19 $5 +$15 +300%
Cho Guesung: 1+ goals Jun 19 $99 +$40 +40%
Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals Jun 19 $39 +$13 +33%
Armando González: 1+ goals Jun 19 $13 +$5 +39%
Oh Hyeongyu: 1+ goals Jun 19 $38 +$12 +30%
Eom Jisung: 1+ goals Jun 19 $35 +$4 +11%
Alexis Vega: 2+ goals Jun 19 $45 +$5 +11%
Alexis Vega: 1+ goals Jun 19 $50 +$12 +23%
Álvaro Fidalgo: 1+ goals Jun 19 $134 +$26 +19%
Santiago Giménez: 1+ assists Jun 19 $234 +$30 +13%
Cyle Larin: 1+ assists Jun 19 $10 +$2 +24%
Jonathan David: 1+ assists Jun 19 $10 +$2 +24%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals Jun 19 $55 +$8 +15%
Jacob Shaffelburg: 1+ goals Jun 19 $140 +$18 +13%
Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals Jun 19 $79 +$22 +28%
Jonathan Osorio: 1+ goals Jun 19 $230 +$20 +9%
Promise David: 1+ goals Jun 19 $89 +$34 +38%
Ismaël Koné: 1+ goals Jun 18 $474 +$43 +9%
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ assists Jun 18 $9 $0 +2%
Ermin Mahmić: 1+ shots Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals Jun 18 $68 −$68 -100%
Mojmír Chytil: 1+ goals Jun 18 $397 +$81 +20%
Tomáš Chorý: 1+ goals Jun 18 $283 +$87 +31%
Lyle Foster: 1+ goals Jun 18 $72 +$18 +25%
Jan Kuchta: 1+ goals Jun 18 $35 +$7 +20%
Mojmír Chytil: 1+ shots Jun 18 $9 +$41 +442%
Tomáš Souček: 1+ goals Jun 18 $63 +$12 +19%
Alexandr Sojka: 1+ goals Jun 18 $88 +$8 +9%
Hugo Sochůrek: 1+ goals Jun 18 $35 +$5 +14%
Denis Višinský: 1+ goals Jun 18 $436 +$73 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY No 77¢ $385 46m
Gustaf Nilsson: 1+ goals BUY No 80¢ $40 1h
Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals BUY No 89¢ $45 1h
Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $6 12h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $377 13h
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $7 16h
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $5 17h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $3 17h
Rayan: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $3 17h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $2 17h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $16 17h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $16 17h
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $32 17h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $3 17h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $3 17h
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $137 18h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $3 18h
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals BUY No 79¢ $149 18h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $3 18h
Raphinha: 1+ goals SELL No 52¢ $52 18h
Raphinha: 1+ goals SELL No 52¢ $5 18h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $233 18h
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $8 18h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $7 18h
Raphinha: 1+ goals SELL No 52¢ $111 18h
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $7 18h
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $26 18h
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $33 18h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $2 18h
Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $7 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $495.94 · official $495.94 (match) · 1585 history records