Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F5
0xf50f…ccc1
weather · 67 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$1,327 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,406 · open −$78
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$312
Realized+$1,406
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses55 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)64 / 67
History coverage46d
Avg bet$376
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 3 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$293
14 days+$98
30 days+$899
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Yes 76¢ 66¢ $300 $262 −$38 (-13%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 33¢ 1¢ $40 $1 −$39 (-96%)
Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $167 $0 −$167 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $460 +$69 +15%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $1,110 +$224 +20%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $201 +$23 +11%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 03 $201 +$22 +11%
Will Ryan Busse be the Democratic nominee for MT-01? Jun 03 $703 −$230 -33%
Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 03 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? Jun 03 $201 +$17 +9%
Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana? Jun 03 $301 −$298 -99%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 01 $1,396 +$131 +9%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 01 $400 +$141 +35%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 May 31 $301 −$43 -14%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 May 31 $451 +$31 +7%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? May 29 $241 +$12 +5%
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33? May 27 $1,705 +$140 +8%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 25 $956 +$87 +9%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $1,003 +$53 +5%
Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? May 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary May 20 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $102 +$61 +60%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 18 $201 +$23 +12%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? May 18 $1,001 +$21 +2%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 18 $601 +$41 +7%
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $523 +$77 +15%
Will Albania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $903 +$71 +8%
Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $406 +$159 +39%
Will Azerbaijan advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $1,002 +$43 +4%
Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $404 +$105 +26%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 12 $750 −$85 -11%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m? May 11 $520 +$95 +18%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m May 11 $300 +$25 +8%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than May 11 $500 +$13 +3%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 09 $1,106 +$167 +15%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 08 $1,038 +$61 +6%
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 08 $759 +$81 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8? May 08 $90 −$70 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 8? May 08 $80 +$9 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 8? May 08 $79 +$8 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7? May 07 $30 −$14 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7? May 07 $54 +$10 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 7? May 07 $48 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7? May 07 $51 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6? May 06 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 6? May 06 $31 +$9 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5? May 05 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 5? May 05 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 5? May 04 $80 +$1 +1%
Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 4m? May 04 $650 +$34 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on May 4? May 04 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 4? May 04 $50 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
culture 42% +$761
politics 26% −$21
other 16% +$536
weather 9% −$43
tech 7% +$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 1h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 72¢ $51 1h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 68¢ $50 3h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 89¢ $101 5h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 6h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 33¢ $41 4d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY Yes 85¢ $10 5d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 5d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY Yes 93¢ $200 5d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY Yes 87¢ $100 5d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY Yes 78¢ $10 6d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY Yes 75¢ $40 6d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY Yes 82¢ $100 6d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? BUY Yes 93¢ $201 6d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 6d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 6d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 7d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 7d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? BUY Yes 77¢ $303 7d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 8d
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 9d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima SELL Yes 94¢ $223 9d
Will Ryan Busse be the Democratic nominee for MT-01? SELL Yes 60¢ $473 10d
Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 10d
Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 10d
Will Ryan Busse be the Democratic nominee for MT-01? BUY Yes 88¢ $703 10d
Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? BUY Yes 92¢ $201 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +17.6% +6.4% 100% 100% +7.4%
≤30d 27 +6.1% -4.0% 89% 33% -3.2%
≤90d 64 +3.8% -6.1% 86% 31% -3.9%
all 64 +3.8% -6.1% 86% 31% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 31% -3.9%
10% -15.1% 9% -13.1%
15% -23.3% 5% -21.5%
20% -30.8% 2% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.64 · official $311.64 (match) · 290 history records