Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf50b…dd56 crypto 286 markets active 1d ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$225 (-5%) realized −$222 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%124W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$135
14 days−$236
30 days−$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$451
other 7% −$13
sports 2% +$35
world 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -16.6% -24.6% 53% 29% -31.0%
≤30d 117 -13.7% -21.9% 50% 42% -17.4%
≤90d 285 -18.0% -25.9% 44% 39% -19.1%
all 285 -18.0% -25.9% 44% 39% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 39% -19.1%
10% -32.9% 33% -26.9%
15% -39.4% 29% -33.9%
20% -45.4% 26% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$222
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses124 / 161
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)285 / 286
History coverage49d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $26 −$3 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 132 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$8 +68%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$5 -30%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 +$17 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -87%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $24 −$7 -30%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +81%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $46 −$21 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$8 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$14 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $102 −$94 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $95 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $112 −$58 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $64 +$22 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $19 +$11 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $187 −$73 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $102 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $149 +$88 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $123 +$26 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $117 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $194 +$27 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $186 −$185 -99%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $196 +$29 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $5 34h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 34h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 37h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 38h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 38h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $4 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 54¢ $18 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 29¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 4¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 4¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.44 · official $26.44 (match) · 668 history records