Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:29:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf509…f1a7 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 80% +$2
crypto 10% −$6
other 5% −$3
weather 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -29.2% -36.0% 33% 17% -11.4%
≤30d 26 -28.9% -35.6% 38% 27% -13.6%
≤90d 26 -28.9% -35.6% 38% 27% -13.6%
all 26 -28.9% -35.6% 38% 27% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 27% -13.6%
10% -41.8% 15% -21.9%
15% -47.4% 12% -29.4%
20% -52.6% 8% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage9d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $99 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -43%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$1 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $63 −$4 -6%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -51%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +43%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 09 $1 $0 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +75%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 08 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 100¢ $53 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 83¢ $46 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 85¢ $47 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 82¢ $33 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 18¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $10 26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 57¢ $10 26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 36¢ $2 26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 72¢ $31 26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 33¢ $2 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $2 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 28h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 68¢ $30 29h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 52¢ $17 29h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 59¢ $20 31h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 55¢ $43 31h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 54¢ $39 31h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 54¢ $5 31h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 94¢ $2 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records