Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf509…86dc sports 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$75 (-4%) realized −$29 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$12
14 days+$6
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$176
other 35% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -1.5% -10.8% 47% 47% -10.2%
≤30d 40 +7.2% -3.0% 45% 45% -11.5%
≤90d 40 +7.2% -3.0% 45% 45% -11.5%
all 40 +7.2% -3.0% 45% 45% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 45% -11.5%
10% -12.3% 45% -20.0%
15% -20.8% 42% -27.7%
20% -28.5% 30% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$38 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage20d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-91%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $32 +$18 +57%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 +$18 +73%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $25 +$15 +59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$51 +101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 −$36 -71%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$23 +46%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$26 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 +$11 +44%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 +$10 +40%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $87 +$49 +57%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$42 +41%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$42 +41%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$88 -87%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $63 +$39 +62%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $19 −$10 -52%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $24 −$10 -40%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $35 +$195 +550%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $41 +$64 +156%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $80 −$79 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $49 −$27 -55%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $111 −$110 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $56 +$54 +97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 +$93 +604%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $61 −$60 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $26 +$34 +133%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 30 $50 −$50 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 30 $28 −$28 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 98¢ $51 15m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $25 31m
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $25 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $25 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $25 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $32 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 21h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 22¢ $15 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 25h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 25h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-0 BUY $15 42h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 44h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 44h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $50 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 50¢ $24 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $25 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $25 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $25 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $25 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $25 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes $0 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $136 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $87 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.97 · official $3.97 (match) · 73 history records