Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf509…67b9 sports 469 markets active 14d ago coverage 171d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 171d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$42,801 (-8%) realized −$42,801 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate70%328W / 141L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,087per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$727est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1,038
30 days−$8,426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$16,397
other 38% −$21,139
crypto 9% −$9,176
world 1% +$1,501
finance 0% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 53 -11.6% -20.0% 64% 58% -23.5%
≤90d 120 -3.8% -12.9% 70% 58% -15.9%
all 469 -6.8% -15.7% 70% 54% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 54% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 32% -24.2%
15% -31.1% 17% -31.5%
20% -37.9% 8% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$1,269) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$229 vs −$852 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42,801
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses328 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$727
Open positions0
Markets (closed)469 / 469
History coverage171d ⚠
Avg bet$1,087
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 469 Trades
no open positions (86 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $679 −$678 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $363 −$360 -99%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $657 +$175 +27%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $429 +$171 +40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $1,719 −$1,704 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $1,203 +$495 +41%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $798 +$202 +25%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $391 +$109 +28%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 28 $640 +$360 +56%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $711 +$524 +74%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 27 $1,706 −$1,699 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 27 $985 −$983 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 26 $724 +$422 +58%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner May 25 $1,109 +$91 +8%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 25 $908 +$113 +12%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $1,468 −$717 -49%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $2,472 +$864 +35%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $415 +$26 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 23 $601 +$161 +27%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $1,267 −$1,264 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 22 $720 +$280 +39%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 22 $568 +$414 +73%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $1,217 +$236 +19%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $423 −$423 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 21 $686 +$234 +34%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1,357 +$874 +64%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $1,065 +$334 +31%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 20 $1,687 −$538 -32%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 20 $895 −$895 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $790 +$116 +15%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 20 $1,576 +$193 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 20 $249 −$249 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $2,167 −$708 -33%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $1,915 −$757 -40%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $926 −$915 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 19 $910 +$195 +21%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 19 $681 −$681 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 19 $2,321 −$874 -38%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 19 $1,067 +$232 +22%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $6,362 −$2,987 -47%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 18 $275 +$125 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 18 $1,488 −$5 -0%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $175 +$125 +71%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 1 Winner May 18 $840 +$91 +11%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 17 $241 +$59 +24%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $451 +$49 +11%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $368 +$121 +33%
Will Paris FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 17 $130 −$128 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 17 $569 +$131 +23%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $537 +$20 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 70¢ $127 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 69¢ $274 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 69¢ $3 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 69¢ $11 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 69¢ $3 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 69¢ $89 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 69¢ $22 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 69¢ $120 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 69¢ $9 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 69¢ $9 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 69¢ $11 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 72¢ $363 13d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 81¢ $7 14d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 81¢ $10 14d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 81¢ $43 14d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 81¢ $21 14d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 82¢ $247 14d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 76¢ $21 14d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 76¢ $7 14d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 76¢ $44 14d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 76¢ $25 14d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 76¢ $3 14d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 76¢ $228 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $1,432 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $286 15d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $1,698 15d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 82¢ $246 15d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 61¢ $110 15d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 61¢ $2 15d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 61¢ $60 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records