Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F5 0xf505…4c26 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$11
other 39% +$6
world 13% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 55% 9% -8.5%
≤30d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 55% 9% -8.5%
≤90d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 55% 9% -8.5%
all 11 +0.8% -8.8% 55% 9% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 9% -8.5%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$2 -6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 +$12 +15%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $79 +$5 +6%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$1 +5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $70 +$6 +8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $74 +$2 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27 −$1 -5%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $69 −$3 -4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $105 −$15 -14%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 38¢ $24 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $25 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 89¢ $92 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 77¢ $81 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 94¢ $79 18h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $49 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 65¢ $10 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 65¢ $1 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 65¢ $16 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 61¢ $25 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $70 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 39¢ $54 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 69¢ $22 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 31¢ $25 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 73¢ $24 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 13¢ $26 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 13¢ $10 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 13¢ $8 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 14¢ $9 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 80¢ $33 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 81¢ $35 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 46¢ $1 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 46¢ $32 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 48¢ $35 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 24¢ $11 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 24¢ $2 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 24¢ $2 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 24¢ $2 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 24¢ $36 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records