Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:27:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F4 0xf4fe…f6e7 weather 1672 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$997 (-4%) realized −$1,130 · open +$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%1433W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day109.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4,236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% +$49
other 7% +$113
crypto 4% −$7
finance 2% +$8
culture 2% +$3
politics 1% +$79
world 1% +$40
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 836 -10.1% -18.6% 89% 0% -31.7%
≤30d 1534 -5.2% -14.3% 93% 0% -22.7%
≤90d 1534 -5.2% -14.3% 93% 0% -22.7%
all 1534 -5.2% -14.3% 93% 0% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 0% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 0% -30.1%
15% -29.9% 0% -36.8%
20% -36.8% 0% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$39 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$4,236
Realized−$1,130
Unrealized+$133
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1433 / 101
Open positions249
Markets (closed)1534 / 1672
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day109.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 249 History 1534 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 79¢ 93¢ $567 $667 +$100 (+18%)
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 96¢ 97¢ $281 $284 +$3 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $90 $93 +$3 (+3%)
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 97¢ 100¢ $79 $81 +$2 (+3%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 82¢ 100¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? No 98¢ 98¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 16? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $43 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Trump declares election interference national emergency? No 78¢ 90¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 1? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will The Midnight Walk win VR Game of the Year at the 2025 Steam Award Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Anca Alexandrescu finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by- Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Jun 16 $2,202 −$2,280 -104%
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be greater than 12m? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in November? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 5? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 2? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 17 to April Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kevin Wilson be the Republican Nominee for MS-02? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump make no endorsement for NYC Mayor? Jun 16 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 23? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Daniel Crenshaw be the Republican Nominee for TX-02? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 me Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1? Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Everett Jackson be the Republican Nominee for TX-30? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 7? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 7? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 12°C or below on March 20? Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
US strikes Iran by Feb 28 Odds >30% by Friday? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on May Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 27? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 2AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 2? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #2 searched person on Google this year? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C or below on May 2 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or higher on March 27? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in F Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 95¢ $28 30m
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 95¢ $19 30m
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 95¢ $19 30m
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 96¢ $19 30m
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 96¢ $19 30m
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 96¢ $19 30m
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $19 30m
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $19 30m
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $19 30m
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 94¢ $10 31m
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 82¢ $10 31m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 96°F or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on June 17 BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY No 95¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 100°F or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,235.55 · official $4,235.15 (match) · 3500 history records