Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4fc…3f7b crypto 36 markets active 23h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$444 (-17%) realized −$444 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate94%33W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$2
crypto 26% +$1
sports 17% −$444
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 32 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 32 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 35 -2.0% -11.3% 94% 3% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -24.7%
10% -19.8% 0% -31.9%
15% -27.6% 0% -38.5%
20% -34.7% 0% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$223 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$444
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses33 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage137d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 16? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 9? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 5? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 3? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 2? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on May 29? Jun 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $95 on May 29? Jun 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 28? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 27? May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 26? May 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 26? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Celtics Mar 16 $1 $0 +22%
Spread: Hawks (-8.5) Mar 14 $444 −$444 -100%
Will Mike Waltz be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Jan 30 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $12 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 11d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $13 13d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $12 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $31 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $32 15d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $12 18d
Will Solana reach $95 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $33 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $12 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 19d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $13 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $33 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $31 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.67 · official $3.67 (match) · 70 history records