Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:51:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F4 0xf4f6…c139 weather 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%250W / 4L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$9
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +0.9% -8.7% 99% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 242 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 254 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 0% -8.9%
all 254 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses250 / 4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)254 / 266
History coverage66d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 29? No 98¢ 99¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 29? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 29? No 99¢ 98¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C or below on June 29? No 98¢ 97¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 29? No 99¢ 96¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 28? No 98¢ 94¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 30? No 92¢ 97¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 29? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 28? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 29? No 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 29? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 28? No 98¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 28 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 29? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 28? Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 27 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 28? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 28? Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 28? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 28? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 28? Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 28? Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 40°C on June 28? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 27? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 27? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 27? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 27? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 94°F or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 41°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 40°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 27°C on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C or higher on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $21 10m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $26 15m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June SELL No 99¢ $26 35m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June SELL No 99¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 30? BUY No 92¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 98¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June SELL No 99¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 29? SELL No 99¢ $9 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $5 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June SELL No 99¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $18 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $26 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $26 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $26 7h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C or below on June 29? BUY No 98¢ $21 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 29? BUY No 95¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $5 9h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C or below on June 29? BUY No 98¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.18 · official $185.28 (match) · 548 history records