Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:13:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F4 0xf4f5…435d crypto 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+5%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR85%break-even
Win rate85%76W / 13L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day66.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$9
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +85%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +4.7% -5.2% 85% 85% -5.0%
≤30d 89 +4.7% -5.2% 85% 85% -5.0%
≤90d 89 +4.7% -5.2% 85% 85% -5.0%
all 89 +4.7% -5.2% 85% 85% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 85% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 27% -14.1%
15% -22.6% 4% -22.4%
20% -30.2% 2% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses76 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day66.7
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records