Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:51:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4f5…0c41 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized +$242 · open −$258
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$904now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$247
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.2% -17.0% 40% 40% -8.7%
≤30d 5 -8.2% -17.0% 40% 40% -8.7%
≤90d 5 -8.2% -17.0% 40% 40% -8.7%
all 5 -8.2% -17.0% 40% 40% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 40% -8.7%
10% -24.9% 40% -17.4%
15% -32.2% 0% -25.4%
20% -38.8% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$54 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$904
Realized+$242
Unrealized−$258
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage25d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $376 $384 +$7 (+2%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $374 $250 −$124 (-33%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $163 $133 −$31 (-19%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $219 $123 −$96 (-44%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $146 −$77 -53%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $263 −$64 -24%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $368 +$94 +25%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $129 −$21 -16%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $296 +$79 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $186 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $69 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $117 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 29h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $72 29h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $124 36h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $123 37h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $123 37h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $168 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $108 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $904.11 · official $904.11 (match) · 98 history records