Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4f4…7df0 other 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 570d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$979 (-8%) realized −$979 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate72%111W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$969
politics 46% −$8
other 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
world 0% $0
crypto 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 64% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 29 -1.9% -11.3% 72% 3% -94.8%
all 154 -5.5% -14.5% 72% 14% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 14% -17.2%
10% -22.7% 8% -25.1%
15% -30.1% 6% -32.4%
20% -37.0% 3% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -94% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$76 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

570d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$979
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses111 / 43
Open positions12
Markets (closed)154 / 166
History coverage570d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $30 −$1 -4%
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
SAVE America Act becomes law by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $8.00 in May? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 13 $1 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? May 13 $1 $0 +15%
Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? May 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish P May 13 $1 $0 +4%
Over $250M committed to the Printr public sale? May 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? May 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 05 $1 $0 +5%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Burnley be relegated from the English Premier League after the 20 May 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? May 05 $2 $0 +6%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? Apr 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 04 $1 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $1 $0 +2%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 04 $3 $0 +2%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 25 $1,409 −$1,409 -100%
Will Queens win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Lorient win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Mar 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win more than 37.5 regular season games in 2025–26 Mar 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Mar 10 $104 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 10 $152 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026? Mar 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Mar 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will Artemis II launch by February 28? Mar 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Player 167 win Beast Games: Season 2? Mar 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Mar 10 $2 $0 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 20 $1,243 −$1,243 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February Feb 20 $1 $0 +0%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on February 9? Feb 20 $1 $0 +1%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Feb 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 Feb 09 $1 $0 +2%
Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $1 $0 +1%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? Feb 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -6°C on January 20? Jan 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 20-26? Jan 24 $2 $0 +1%
Wild vs. Canadiens Jan 21 $2,688 +$2,112 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $1 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $10 7d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $4 7d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $15 7d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $4 10d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $10 10d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $15 10d
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 12d
SAVE America Act becomes law by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 12d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 12d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 12d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 29d
SAVE America Act becomes law by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 29d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $8.00 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 29d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 29d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 29d
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.20 · official $14.20 (match) · 385 history records