Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:04:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4f2…771f sports 24 markets active 2d ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-4%) realized −$23 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$13
world 20% −$15
other 14% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +18.6% +7.3% 50% 50% -20.7%
≤30d 13 +22.6% +10.9% 54% 54% -7.4%
≤90d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 42% 42% -14.7%
all 19 +0.1% -9.4% 42% 42% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 42% -14.7%
10% -18.1% 37% -22.9%
15% -26.0% 26% -30.3%
20% -33.3% 26% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)19 / 24
History coverage57d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 27¢ 31¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+38%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $5 +$23 +442%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $25 +$30 +119%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 -4%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +14%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $52 +$37 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $35 +$20 +56%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $18 −$18 -99%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the seco Apr 29 $35 −$16 -46%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Apr 23 $50 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 41¢ $10 2d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Viktorija Golubic 48¢ $20 2d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 72¢ $20 2d
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 18¢ $5 3d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 49¢ $25 3d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Hannah Klugman $12 3d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 62¢ $13 3d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Hannah Klugman 18¢ $9 3d
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 45¢ $25 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $40 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $20 5d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 81¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $30 5d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 63¢ $13 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $52 44d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 46d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 76¢ $18 52d
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the seco SELL Yes 30¢ $19 53d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 56¢ $14 59d
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 59d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $49 59d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $50 59d
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the seco BUY Yes 52¢ $10 59d
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the seco BUY Yes 54¢ $25 59d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 27¢ $15 59d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 59d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 59d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.67 · official $41.67 (match) · 87 history records