Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F4 0xf4f1…86f1 politics 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$24
politics 34% −$19
sports 9% +$50
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 132 +2.0% -7.7% 10% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 8% -9.5%
10% -16.6% 6% -18.2%
15% -24.6% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.0% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×9.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage127d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $349 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $314 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $377 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $284 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $245 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $899 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $286 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $226 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $232 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $318 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $305 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 12 $313 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $645 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $243 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $261 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $295 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $258 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $876 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $245 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $229 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $236 $0 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $284 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $230 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $277 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $251 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $235 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $306 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $37 8h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 8h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 10h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 16h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 24h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $30 43h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 7d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 10d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 11d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 11d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 12d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 15d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 21d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $284 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $284 24d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $245 24d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $245 25d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $276 25d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $276 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 420 history records