Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4ee…47c8 sports 365 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,188 (-5%) realized −$16,306 · open +$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate65%237W / 125L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$821per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$2,222est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 101d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$9,518
other 1% +$3,055
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -72.3% -74.9% 18% 12% -67.7%
≤30d 85 -63.0% -66.5% 24% 16% -64.0%
≤90d 270 -5.3% -14.3% 64% 48% -24.2%
all 362 -1.4% -10.8% 65% 49% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 49% -11.5%
10% -19.3% 39% -20.0%
15% ← realistic here -27.1% 31% -27.7%
20% -34.2% 22% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$890) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$291 vs −$604 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$16,306
Unrealized+$118
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses237 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$2,222
Open positions2
Markets (closed)362 / 365
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$821
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 362 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $90 $265 +$175 (+194%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $242 +$234 +97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $82 +$53 +64%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 25 $97 +$65 +67%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $65 −$65 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $82 −$81 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $466 +$214 +46%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 24 $445 +$49 +11%
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse Jun 24 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +5%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $218 +$100 +46%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $126 −$126 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $63 +$104 +163%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $260 −$256 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 23 $58 −$58 -99%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Pavlyuche Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Madrid Open: Magdalena Frech vs Solana Sierra Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 23 $3,247 +$383 +12%
Madrid Open: Peyton Stearns vs Lois Boisson Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakina Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $433 +$110 +25%
Madrid Open: Cameron Norrie vs Tomas Machac Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Jasmine Paolini Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Muchova (+1.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Kessler (+1.5) Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Cristian Garin vs Martin Damm Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone Jun 23 $310 +$23 +8%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Jun 23 $2,480 +$18 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren Jun 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 23 $121 −$121 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jun 23 $184 −$184 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 23 $195 −$195 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Jun 23 $247 −$247 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 23 $370 −$370 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rebeka Masarova vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $531 −$531 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 23 $506 −$506 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $58 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $92 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 20¢ $24 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 20¢ $28 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $242 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $82 5d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Haiti 60¢ $97 5d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $65 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 61¢ $82 5d
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 70¢ $215 5d
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 70¢ $37 5d
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 67¢ $214 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic SELL Tereza Valentova 100¢ $495 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Tereza Valentova 89¢ $9 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Tereza Valentova 90¢ $166 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Tereza Valentova 90¢ $271 5d
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 43¢ $159 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova SELL Kimberly Birrell 100¢ $318 6d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Kimberly Birrell 76¢ $69 6d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Kimberly Birrell 68¢ $139 6d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Kimberly Birrell 39¢ $10 6d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 55¢ $126 6d
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 38¢ $63 6d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $260 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 52¢ $58 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $1 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 7d
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Adam Walton 100¢ $640 7d
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 83¢ $532 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.68 · official $264.68 (match) · 3500 history records