Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:13:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4ee…55fa world 96 markets active 14h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%36W / 57L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$56
other 20% +$2
politics 18% −$23
sports 8% +$11
finance 2% +$79
crypto 1% −$4
tech 1% −$3
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$16
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.0% -9.5% 22% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 +1.7% -8.0% 38% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 41 +0.4% -9.2% 39% 5% -9.5%
all 93 -6.1% -15.0% 39% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 4% -9.6%
10% -23.1% 2% -18.3%
15% -30.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -37.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses36 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)93 / 96
History coverage483d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+202%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $413 +$3 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $668 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $213 −$3 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $235 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $111 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $318 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $186 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $205 −$2 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $141 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $189 −$3 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $172 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $571 −$1 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $195 −$4 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $133 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $22 +$1 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $1,084 +$6 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $148 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $648 −$50 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $194 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $189 −$10 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $392 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $374 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $159 +$72 +45%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $218 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $147 +$2 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $113 +$1 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $338 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $122 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $83 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $117 +$7 +6%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,888 −$11 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $1,267 +$6 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $651 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $412 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $1,181 +$1 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 01 $2 −$1 -39%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 26 $12 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 24 $6 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 12 $17 $0 +1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 09 $6 $0 +7%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 08 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $0 14h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $89 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $92 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $181 34h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $176 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $5 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $181 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $22 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $184 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $181 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $30 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $16 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $108 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $92 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $23 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $132 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $89 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $47 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $71 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $111 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $51 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.00 (match) · 438 history records