Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:15:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf4ec…72c5 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$85 (+0%) realized +$80 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate93%28W / 2L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$2,553per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$62
other 0% +$23
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤30d 3 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤90d 7 +9.2% -1.2% 100% 43% -1.7%
all 30 +6.2% -3.9% 93% 33% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 33% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 10% -18.1%
15% -21.5% 3% -26.0%
20% -29.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.67 per $1 lost it wins $10.67
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$383
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses28 / 2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)30 / 37
History coverage216d
Avg bet$2,553
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $187 $187 −$0 (-0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 93¢ 92¢ $93 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+6%)
StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch? No 91¢ 98¢ $25 $26 +$2 (+8%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 24 $19 +$1 +3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 24 $29 +$2 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $11 +$2 +18%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $15 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 07 $14 +$2 +15%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 07 $20 +$2 +12%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 17 $11 +$2 +16%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Mar 14 $92,533 +$33 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 14 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 03 $10 $0 +3%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Mar 03 $88 +$12 +14%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $11 −$8 -72%
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31? Feb 03 $9 +$1 +10%
US forces enter Iran by January 31? Feb 03 $10 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $13 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Feb 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)? Jan 23 $997 +$3 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 07 $34 +$10 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $12 $0 +3%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $12 +$1 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Jan 02 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jan 02 $12 +$3 +26%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 16 $11 $0 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 16 $12 +$2 +14%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Dec 16 $12 +$5 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? BUY No 93¢ $93 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $187 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $17 58d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $19 58d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 75d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY No 93¢ $29 77d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 86¢ $11 112d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? BUY No 93¢ $13 112d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 128d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 134d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $17 134d
StandX FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $11 134d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 134d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 140d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $11 140d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 89¢ $20 141d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 141d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 143d
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 148d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? SELL No 100¢ $4,694 150d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? SELL No 100¢ $3,689 150d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? SELL No 100¢ $491 150d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $4,885 150d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $3,988 150d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? SELL No 100¢ $12 150d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? SELL No 100¢ $87 150d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? SELL No 100¢ $88 150d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? SELL No 100¢ $1 150d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? SELL No 100¢ $1 150d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? SELL No 100¢ $82 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382.72 · official $382.70 (match) · 354 history records