Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4e9…bf77 other 270 markets active 0h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$945 (-17%) realized −$945 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate3%9W / 260L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$210
14 days−$304
30 days−$362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$205
politics 22% −$570
tech 12% −$90
world 9% −$56
culture 7% −$39
weather 5% −$9
sports 5% −$15
economics 3% −$14
finance 3% −$6
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 -9.4% -18.1% 0% 0% -16.2%
≤30d 240 -11.1% -19.6% 0% 0% -17.8%
≤90d 254 -11.4% -19.8% 1% 0% -18.6%
all 269 -11.5% -19.9% 3% 1% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 1% -26.3%
10% -27.6% 1% -33.3%
15% -34.6% 0% -39.8%
20% -41.0% 0% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$945
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses9 / 260
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)269 / 270
History coverage264d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 269 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Gonçalo Ramos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $23 −$1 -6%
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Antonio Reynoso win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 21 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Iraq be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Wor Jun 21 $3 $0 -14%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -14%
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 21 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? Jun 21 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? Jun 21 $45 −$1 -3%
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 21 $38 $0 -1%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -23%
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $11 $0 -1%
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $22 $0 -2%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will Antonio Reynoso win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -52%
Will 6+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 21 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by mor Jun 21 $3 $0 -4%
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Jun 21 $19 −$1 -4%
3Jane FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jun 21 $9 $0 -1%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 21 $22 $0 -2%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 20 $7 $0 -7%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30? Jun 20 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 20 $50 −$6 -12%
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime sh Jun 20 $6 −$1 -23%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 20 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 20 $12 −$1 -7%
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 $0 -16%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 20 $27 −$2 -8%
City Protocol FDV above $350M one day after launch? Jun 20 $32 −$4 -11%
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $71 −$2 -3%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $4 $0 -7%
Will Ivory Coast be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 20 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will Norway go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 20 $6 $0 -2%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $19.5B by June 30? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Josué Casimir score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4 $0 -3%
Will there be 4+ Pentakills at MSI? Jun 20 $1 $0 -14%
3Jane FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 20 $21 −$6 -28%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $50 −$11 -22%
Will Sweden be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W Jun 20 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Jun 20 $53 −$5 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $11 0m
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $11 0m
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 28m
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 28m
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $8 34m
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $10 34m
Will Gonçalo Ramos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 44¢ $22 35m
Will Gonçalo Ramos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 46¢ $23 35m
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $34 1h
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 1h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 57¢ $28 2h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $29 2h
Will Antonio Reynoso win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 2h
Will Antonio Reynoso win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 2h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2h
Will Iraq be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Wor SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Iraq be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Wor BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 70¢ $12 2h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $12 2h
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 6¢ $0 2h
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 2h
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 72¢ $14 3h
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 3h
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 3h
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 3h
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 3h
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 3h
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 893 history records