Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4e7…e779 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30 (-5%) realized −$29 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%27W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$22
14 days−$25
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$37
sports 36% $0
tech 2% −$3
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +55.3% +40.5% 62% 48% -15.8%
≤30d 34 +43.7% +30.0% 65% 53% -8.5%
≤90d 51 +15.2% +4.2% 53% 45% -15.5%
all 51 +15.2% +4.2% 53% 45% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 45% -15.5%
10% -5.7% 41% -23.6%
15% -14.9% 31% -30.9%
20% -23.2% 24% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses27 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)51 / 56
History coverage55d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +170%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$2 -36%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 +$8 +156%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 +$4 +12%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 −$80 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $81 +$2 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $10 −$3 -29%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$21 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 +$5 +437%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 11 $2 +$16 +777%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $2 $0 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $10 −$2 -17%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $54 +$3 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 +$1 +36%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 31 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$2 -43%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $10 +$4 +40%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 27 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$2 +75%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 23 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 22 $5 +$4 +88%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $2 $0 -15%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 08 $20 +$6 +28%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$1 -10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $10 +$1 +13%
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sunderland AFC 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest FC? Apr 26 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $20 +$5 +23%
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $5 +$5 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $3 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 17h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 41¢ $6 32h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $1 44h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 66¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $81 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $83 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 93¢ $81 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO SELL Yes 54¢ $7 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $20 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.11 · official $8.11 (match) · 111 history records