Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:48:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf4e1…34a5
sports · 20 markets active 3h ago
10.0score
+$72,699 +79%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$72,617 · open +$82
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 1 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,787
7 days+$37,943
14 days+$57,614
30 days+$61,188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13,911 $13,993 +$82 (+1%)
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 13¢ $1,400 $0 −$1,400 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud Casper Ruud 15¢ $1,439 $0 −$1,439 (-100%)
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2,623 +$3,368 +128%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,199 +$1,419 +118%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $11,401 +$12,963 +114%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $16,073 +$17,848 +111%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 08 $5,154 +$2,346 +46%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $1,436 −$1,400 -98%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $1,028 −$1,000 -97%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $9,943 +$13,821 +139%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $9,924 +$8,350 +84%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $4,963 +$5,013 +101%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $1,475 −$1,439 -98%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 03 $6,208 −$1,339 -22%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) May 03 $2,972 +$3,245 +109%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $990 +$2,043 +206%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 05 $1,486 +$1,835 +124%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-03-11? Mar 23 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $654 +$5,742 +878%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-11? Mar 11 $97 +$39 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 81% +$69,471
other 19% +$3,227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5,991 2h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $9 4h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2,614 4h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $2,618 17h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 45¢ $1,199 21h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14,293 47h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $24,364 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $6,320 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 77¢ $31,865 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 76¢ $2,056 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $5,081 4d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $7,500 4d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $66 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $16,073 9d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $5,088 9d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,436 12d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $1,028 12d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $103 12d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 100¢ $23,764 12d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $18,274 12d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $9,924 12d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 41¢ $9,943 20d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $15 21d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $4,948 21d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud BUY Casper Ruud 15¢ $1,475 25d
Canadiens vs. Lightning SELL Canadiens 40¢ $4,868 39d
Canadiens vs. Lightning BUY Canadiens 41¢ $3,174 39d
Canadiens vs. Lightning BUY Canadiens 62¢ $3,034 39d
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) SELL Pistons 100¢ $6,217 39d
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) BUY Pistons 47¢ $25 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+70.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +103.4% +84.0% 100% 100% +84.7%
≤30d 12 +36.8% +23.7% 67% 67% +75.4%
≤90d 18 +90.9% +72.7% 67% 67% +75.0%
all 19 +88.2% +70.3% 68% 68% +75.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +70.3% 68% +75.0%
10% ← realistic here +54.0% 68% +58.2%
15% +39.1% 68% +42.9%
20% +25.5% 58% +28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,992.61 · official $13,992.61 (match) · 46 history records