Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4df…e6cf weather 893 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$110 (+2%) realized +$135 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate61%443W / 285L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day70.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$199
7 days−$444
14 days−$423
30 days−$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$229
weather 39% −$161
sports 14% −$2
crypto 2% −$7
world 1% −$8
politics 1% +$29
tech 1% −$15
culture 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 +14.4% +3.5% 35% 23% -48.7%
≤30d 728 +21.9% +10.3% 61% 36% -15.4%
≤90d 728 +21.9% +10.3% 61% 36% -15.4%
all 728 +21.9% +10.3% 61% 36% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.3% 36% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -0.3% 28% -23.5%
15% -9.9% 24% -30.9%
20% -18.7% 19% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$135
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses443 / 285
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions72
Markets (closed)728 / 893
History coverage26d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day70.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 72 History 728 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? No 56¢ 94¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? No 76¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 84¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 16? Yes 9¢ 79¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+769%)
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 4¢ 36¢ $0 $4 +$3 (+740%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? No 9¢ 100¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+1011%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 33¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+263%)
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? No 50¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Will CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo win on 2026-05-22? No 10¢ 80¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+705%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will Nathan Butterfield be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-81%)
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Will Jed Cochran be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 16? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will Dan Rooney be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 +$8 +265%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $12 −$2 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$4 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +40%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$5 -33%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +335%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Second half draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$5 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $1 +$19 +3303%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $21 −$12 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $15 −$13 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 56¢ $5 6m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 56¢ $1 6m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 56¢ $2 6m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 56¢ $1 6m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY No 94¢ $2 6m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY No 87¢ $2 6m
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY No 99¢ $2 6m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY No 97¢ $2 6m
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? BUY No 99¢ $2 6m
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY No 98¢ $2 6m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY No 87¢ $2 6m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY No 83¢ $1 6m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY No 91¢ $2 6m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY No 94¢ $2 6m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 85¢ $2 6m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY No 92¢ $2 19m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY No 91¢ $2 19m
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? BUY No 99¢ $2 19m
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY No 99¢ $5 19m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY No 97¢ $5 19m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY No 94¢ $5 19m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY No 88¢ $1 19m
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? BUY No 99¢ $5 19m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY No 98¢ $5 19m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY No 91¢ $5 19m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 75¢ $4 19m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY No 94¢ $2 19m
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY No 98¢ $5 19m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY No 92¢ $5 19m
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY No 98¢ $2 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.27 · official $58.48 · 2850 history records