Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F4 0xf4df…8090 crypto 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$138 (+6%) realized +$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%28W / 42L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day78.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$381
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +5.7% -4.4% 40% 39% +4.9%
≤30d 70 +5.7% -4.4% 40% 39% +4.9%
≤90d 70 +5.7% -4.4% 40% 39% +4.9%
all 70 +5.7% -4.4% 40% 39% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 39% +4.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 37% -5.1%
15% -21.9% 31% -14.3%
20% -29.6% 21% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$19 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses28 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage3d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day78.2
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $339 +$170 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $66 +$81 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $79 +$28 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $96 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$124 +473%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $107 +$84 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $73 −$73 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $7 +$28 +432%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $143 +$96 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $13 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $13 +$49 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$163 +653%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $13 +$45 +340%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$29 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $58 +$23 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$14 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $33 −$30 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $40 −$30 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $40 +$17 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $126 +$75 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $17 +$45 +265%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $53 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $46 +$16 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 264 history records