trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 51¢ | 50¢ | $36 | $35 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 12 | $8 | −$1 | -18% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 11 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 09 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Jun 09 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 9? | May 10 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? | Apr 09 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? | Apr 09 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? | Apr 08 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? | Apr 08 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian | Apr 08 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 07 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 30 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Mar 29 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | Mar 25 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 25 | $2 | $0 | +10% |
| Norfolk State vs. Florida | Mar 20 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? | Mar 19 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| March Madness: 8 first round upsets? | Mar 19 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 17 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? | Mar 16 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 12 | $14 | +$1 | +4% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -3.4% | -12.6% | 20% | 0% | -10.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -3.4% | -12.6% | 20% | 0% | -10.5% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -3.4% | -12.6% | 20% | 0% | -10.5% |
| all | 25 | -4.0% | -13.1% | 48% | 0% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.1% | 0% | -10.2% |
| 10% | -21.4% | 0% | -18.8% |
| 15% | -29.0% | 0% | -26.7% |
| 20% | -36.0% | 0% | -33.8% |