Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F4 0xf4dd…b5a6 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$603 (+33%) realized +$605 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$637
sports 10% −$1
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +18.2% +6.9% 64% 64% +32.2%
≤30d 11 +18.2% +6.9% 64% 64% +32.2%
≤90d 11 +18.2% +6.9% 64% 64% +32.2%
all 11 +18.2% +6.9% 64% 64% +32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.9% 64% +32.2%
10% -3.3% 55% +19.6%
15% -12.6% 55% +8.0%
20% -21.2% 45% -2.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$15 · ×6.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.29 per $1 lost it wins $11.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$605
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $968 +$468 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $56 +$30 +53%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $46 −$46 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$10 -65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $91 +$65 +71%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 −$5 -19%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $54 +$33 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 +$50 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Belgium v BUY 25¢ $4 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $441 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $86 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $287 32h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $46 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $58 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $101 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $58 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $17 39h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 37¢ $34 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 37¢ $61 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL 29¢ $21 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 35¢ $25 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will B BUY 10¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $38 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 54¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.71 · official $197.71 (match) · 44 history records