Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:09:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4dc…0312 sports 198 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%20W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$5
other 22% −$5
politics 20% −$2
economics 7% −$2
culture 7% −$2
crypto 6% −$2
world 5% −$1
tech 3% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.0%
all 197 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses20 / 177
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)197 / 198
History coverage173d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 94¢ 94¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $33 $0 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $42 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $113 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $209 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 19 $249 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 18 $117 −$3 -3%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 16 $71 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $79 $0 +0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 14 $131 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $81 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 12 $34 $0 -1%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 12 $35 $0 -1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 12 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 12 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 11 $76 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $127 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 10 $72 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $71 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $98 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 07 $67 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 06 $117 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $100 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $64 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 01 $37 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 01 $257 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 27 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 27 $111 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 25 $75 $0 +0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 25 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 25 $49 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $126 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $29 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $32 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 14d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $36 28d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $36 28d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 40d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? SELL No 95¢ $30 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 95¢ $30 100d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $32 100d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $32 100d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $31 100d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $31 100d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $31 100d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $31 101d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $43 101d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $43 101d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $41 101d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $41 101d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $43 101d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $43 101d
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 95¢ $42 101d
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 96¢ $43 102d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $36 102d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $36 102d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 96¢ $40 102d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 96¢ $41 102d
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 96¢ $39 102d
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 96¢ $39 102d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $34 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.41 · official $29.41 (match) · 729 history records