Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4db…6383 crypto 325 markets active 1d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%160W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$13
14 days−$8
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -6.5% -15.4% 46% 41% -13.7%
≤30d 325 -3.9% -13.1% 49% 43% -14.6%
≤90d 325 -3.9% -13.1% 49% 43% -14.6%
all 325 -3.9% -13.1% 49% 43% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 43% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 35% -22.8%
15% -29.0% 27% -30.2%
20% -35.9% 21% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses160 / 165
Open positions0
Markets (closed)325 / 325
History coverage26d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 325 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$5 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$5 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$10 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -53%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +139%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -84%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$11 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $7 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $2 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $7 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $13 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 793 history records