Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F4 0xf4d9…2c7a other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$149 (-15%) realized −$149 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$170
7 days−$165
14 days−$165
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$5
world 20% −$170
politics 20% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -39.6% -45.4% 50% 0% -45.7%
≤30d 2 -39.6% -45.4% 50% 0% -45.7%
≤90d 2 -39.6% -45.4% 50% 0% -45.7%
all 5 -15.8% -23.8% 60% 0% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 0% -24.1%
10% -31.1% 0% -31.3%
15% -37.8% 0% -38.0%
20% -43.9% 0% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$170 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage120d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $208 −$170 -82%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $204 +$5 +2%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Feb 19 $204 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Feb 17 $204 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 15 $204 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $38 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $208 7h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $209 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $204 115d
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $204 115d
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $204 117d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $204 118d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $204 118d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $204 119d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $204 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records