Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4d9…e971 world 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% +$4
other 8% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.1% -10.5% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 +39.9% +26.6% 33% 17% -8.8%
≤90d 19 +37.8% +24.7% 37% 16% -8.8%
all 29 +25.0% +13.1% 45% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.1% 10% -8.9%
10% +2.3% 7% -17.6%
15% -7.6% 7% -25.6%
20% -16.7% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage473d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 -13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $12 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $51 −$3 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $71 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $34 +$6 +17%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Mar 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? Mar 25 $13 $0 +1%
Will “Adolescence: Limited Series” be the top global Netflix show this Mar 24 $13 $0 -1%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 21 $13 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $14 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $27 13m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $40 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $32 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $4 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $37 11h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $40 15h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $40 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $36 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $36 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $4 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $33 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $12 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $10 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $22 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $27 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $38 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $38 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $16 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.38 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records