Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:18:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F4 0xf4d5…66e1 crypto 810 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (181 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$591 (-4%) realized −$476 · open −$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate68%524W / 247L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day180.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days+$261
14 days+$589
30 days+$652
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$401
other 48% +$931
world 2% −$7
sports 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (181 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 259 -5.9% -14.9% 69% 64% -5.1%
≤30d 771 -2.8% -12.1% 68% 65% -5.1%
≤90d 771 -2.8% -12.1% 68% 65% -5.1%
all 771 -2.8% -12.1% 68% 65% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover180.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 65% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 60% -14.2%
15% -28.2% 37% -22.5%
20% -35.2% 6% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$1,131
Realized−$476
Unrealized−$115
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses524 / 247
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions46
Markets (closed)771 / 810
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day180.7
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 771 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 25¢ 52¢ $96 $203 +$107 (+112%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $85 $117 +$32 (+38%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $110 $116 +$6 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 9¢ 31¢ $29 $104 +$74 (+253%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $76 $93 +$17 (+22%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 27¢ 87¢ $24 $78 +$54 (+226%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 67¢ 94¢ $47 $65 +$18 (+39%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $35 $41 +$7 (+19%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 74¢ 69¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $44 $22 −$22 (-50%)
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 96¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 90¢ 88¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $90 $12 −$78 (-86%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 71¢ 13¢ $64 $12 −$52 (-82%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 93¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 93¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 93¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $62 $9 −$52 (-85%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 87¢ 86¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 80¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 15 $33 −$8 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $9 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 10m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $7 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $7 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $7 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $6 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $11 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $9 39m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $11 41m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,131.34 · official $1,127.49 (match) · 3500 history records