Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:26:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F4 0xf4d3…7471 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized −$10 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$629now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$2
politics 11% +$11
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -36.2% -42.2% 33% 33% -24.1%
≤30d 4 -23.4% -30.7% 50% 50% -22.4%
≤90d 4 -23.4% -30.7% 50% 50% -22.4%
all 4 -23.4% -30.7% 50% 50% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 50% -22.4%
10% -37.3% 0% -29.8%
15% -43.4% 0% -36.6%
20% -48.9% 0% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$629
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage17d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 85¢ 90¢ $444 $469 +$25 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $87 $93 +$6 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $40 $43 +$4 (+9%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $30 $23 −$6 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $90 +$11 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 91¢ $40 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? SELL No 90¢ $100 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 14h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $41 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $4 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $10 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $51 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $8 14d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $90 16d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 85¢ $302 17d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 85¢ $181 17d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 84¢ $15 17d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 84¢ $4 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $628.93 · official $629.48 (match) · 30 history records