Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf4d0…eb6e crypto 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$324 (-2%) realized −$275 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate49%41W / 42L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days+$33
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% +$25
other 26% −$6
tech 23% +$28
crypto 15% −$33
sports 6% −$504
world 1% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +28.1% +15.9% 100% 100% +15.9%
≤30d 6 -27.6% -34.5% 67% 17% -8.1%
≤90d 54 -16.4% -24.4% 50% 31% -11.4%
all 83 -12.6% -20.9% 49% 34% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 34% -11.8%
10% -28.5% 28% -20.2%
15% -35.4% 24% -27.9%
20% -41.7% 17% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$30 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized−$275
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses41 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)83 / 87
History coverage143d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $160 $145 −$15 (-9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-59%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $103 +$29 +28%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 09 $100 +$4 +4%
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $2,973 +$23 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $37 −$36 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 21 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 17 $28 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 17 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 17 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 17 $52 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 17 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 16 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 16 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 16 $52 +$52 +100%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $4,483 +$17 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 09 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 09 $103 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 09 $48 −$48 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 09 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 09 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 09 $103 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 09 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 08 $104 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 08 $155 +$69 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 08 $725 −$25 -3%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $99 −$98 -99%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 04 $31 −$30 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 03 $18 +$2 +11%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 02 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 02 $85 +$8 +9%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $28 $0 +1%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? May 02 $3,495 +$26 +1%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $675 +$4 +1%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $164 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 20h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $132 20h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 30h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 79¢ $104 12d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 76¢ $100 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 29d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 36¢ $37 30d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 33¢ $40 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 33¢ $22 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 31d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 33¢ $35 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 35d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 5¢ $22 35d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $28 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $9 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $9 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $9 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $27 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $49 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $46 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.52 · official $256.51 · 302 history records