Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4cf…a094 other 247 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$44
sports 25% −$21
politics 9% −$7
culture 6% −$7
economics 5% −$3
crypto 4% −$5
world 3% −$1
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 247
History coverage133d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $246 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $136 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $299 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $599 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $203 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $547 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $498 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $281 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $123 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $400 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 11 $288 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $543 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $922 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $536 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $207 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $775 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $530 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $182 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $309 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $636 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $161 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $306 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $250 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $729 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $219 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 4m
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 1h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 3h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 4h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 9h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 11h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 12h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 14h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 15h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 17h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 18h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 19h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 21h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 22h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 24h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 26h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 28h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 29h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 30h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 32h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 37h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 39h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 40h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 42h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 43h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 45h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 46h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 47h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1387 history records