Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F4 0xf4cc…d1e5 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$418per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 20% −$2
world 20% +$1
other 20% −$1
economics 20% +$1
sports 19% +$9
politics 0% +$1
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +39.8% +26.5% 71% 29% -9.2%
≤90d 7 +39.8% +26.5% 71% 29% -9.2%
all 7 +39.8% +26.5% 71% 29% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.5% 29% -9.2%
10% +14.4% 29% -17.9%
15% +3.3% 29% -25.8%
20% -6.8% 14% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.96 per $1 lost it wins $4.96
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage26d
Avg bet$418
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 24 $667 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $680 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $675 +$1 +0%
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? Jun 03 $1 +$2 +239%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +38%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $652 +$9 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 02 $656 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $667 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $667 12d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 12d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $678 12d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $680 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $676 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $675 20d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 20d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 20d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 99¢ $118 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 99¢ $118 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 99¢ $178 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 99¢ $118 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 99¢ $118 22d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $655 22d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $656 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.65 · official $9.65 (match) · 25 history records