Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4cb…14a8 crypto 460 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate89%409W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$24
tech 4% +$1
finance 2% +$2
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 83% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 13 +0.4% -9.1% 92% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 457 -0.2% -9.7% 89% 40% -9.6%
all 457 -0.2% -9.7% 89% 40% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 40% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 13% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$34 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses409 / 48
Open positions3
Markets (closed)457 / 460
History coverage90d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 11 $74 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 10 $78 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 06 $353 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 06 $218 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $149 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 30 $319 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 30 $590 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 28 $119 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 15 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 14 $39 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 14 $46 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 14 $41 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 14 $39 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 14 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 13 $39 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 13 $44 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 13 $44 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 13 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 13 $41 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 13 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 12 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 12 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 10 $44 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 10 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 10 $43 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 10 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 10 $38 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 10 $38 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 10 $34 +$12 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 10 $44 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 09 $39 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 09 $44 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 08 $44 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 08 $35 +$11 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 08 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 08 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 08 $39 +$8 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $20 56m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 96¢ $38 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? SELL No 96¢ $6 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 96¢ $19 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? SELL No 96¢ $19 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 96¢ $19 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? SELL No 96¢ $19 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 96¢ $19 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? SELL No 96¢ $19 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 96¢ $19 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? SELL No 99¢ $20 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 93¢ $19 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $20 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 94¢ $19 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $20 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 98¢ $20 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $20 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? SELL No 97¢ $39 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? SELL No 96¢ $19 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 97¢ $39 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? SELL No 97¢ $39 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 97¢ $39 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 93¢ $37 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 92¢ $18 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? SELL No 98¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.94 · official $112.94 (match) · 1276 history records