Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:07:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F4 0xf4ca…a6ec other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$95 (+5%) realized +$110 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$1,115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$174
sports 5% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +31.2% +18.7% 11% 11% +0.6%
≤30d 9 +31.2% +18.7% 11% 11% +0.6%
≤90d 9 +31.2% +18.7% 11% 11% +0.6%
all 9 +31.2% +18.7% 11% 11% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.7% 11% +0.6%
10% +7.3% 11% -9.1%
15% -3.1% 11% -17.9%
20% -12.6% 11% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$873 vs −$97 · ×8.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,115
Realized+$110
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)9 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $400 $396 −$4 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $213 $205 −$8 (-4%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $206 $197 −$9 (-4%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $147 $154 +$7 (+5%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $79 $72 −$7 (-8%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+4%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $81 +$873 +1080%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $99 −$96 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $76 −$74 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $77 −$75 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $44 −$43 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $214 −$209 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $186 −$181 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $56 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $59 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $406 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $123 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $154 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $149 2h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 92¢ $954 36h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $24 38h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 38h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $48 38h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 38h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 38h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $23 38h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $33 38h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $77 38h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 38h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $44 39h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 39h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $24 39h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $186 40h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $190 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,114.71 · official $1,114.71 (match) · 28 history records