Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4c4…faf0 crypto 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$93 (-23%) realized −$68 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$2
14 days−$96
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$39
politics 13% −$50
other 13% −$30
world 10% −$36
weather 4% −$10
finance 3% +$42
economics 3% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +58.6% +43.5% 60% 40% -11.5%
≤30d 22 -33.2% -39.6% 32% 23% -36.6%
≤90d 22 -33.2% -39.6% 32% 23% -36.6%
all 22 -33.2% -39.6% 32% 23% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.6% 23% -36.6%
10% -45.4% 23% -42.6%
15% -50.6% 23% -48.2%
20% -55.5% 18% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -79% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$68
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Open positions6
Markets (closed)22 / 28
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 71¢ 79¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-82%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 51¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 24 $10 +$42 +410%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +93%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$34 +132%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 8d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $60 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 8d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $10 9d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? BUY No $10 9d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? BUY No $10 9d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No $10 9d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 9d
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $10 9d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 9d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 9d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 51¢ $5 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.92 · official $39.92 (match) · 46 history records