Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:27:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf4c1…82b3
crypto · 1380 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,416 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,416 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,416
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1280 / 431
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1711 / 1380
History coverage66d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1711 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,279
7 days−$2,248
14 days−$2,168
30 days−$2,161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Jazz 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on February 19? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 13? No 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Creighton Bluejays vs. Connecticut Huskies Connecticut Huskies 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Dallas Open: Adam Walton vs Adrian Mannarino Walton 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 241.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will Solana dip to $70 February 9-15? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-12? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: SIUE Cougars (-1.5) Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5) Jazz 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
USC Trojans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes USC Trojans 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Missouri Tigers Vanderbilt Commodores 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on February 19 Jun 13 $4 −$7 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $0 −$7 -3211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Creighton Bluejays vs. Connecticut Huskies Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Dallas Open: Adam Walton vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 241.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Solana dip to $70 February 9-15? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: SIUE Cougars (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
USC Trojans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Missouri Tigers Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -197%
Pistons vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -88%
76ers vs. Pelicans Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Pistons vs. Knicks Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 −$1 -276%
Weber State Wildcats vs. Idaho Vandals: O/U 158.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5) Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Hawks vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$4 -539%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 1 Jun 13 $4 −$8 -200%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 22? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Heat Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-02-13? Jun 13 $4 −$8 -200%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-19? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 24? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 17 to February 24, 2 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$6 -556%
Spread: Nets (-4.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Celtics vs. Warriors Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$809
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $24 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 455 -54.0% -58.4% 27% 18% -38.5%
≤30d 713 -33.8% -40.1% 49% 30% -23.6%
≤90d 1711 -12.8% -21.1% 75% 24% -12.6%
all 1711 -12.8% -21.1% 75% 24% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 24% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 7% -21.0%
15% -35.5% 3% -28.6%
20% -41.8% 2% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records